Tuesday, January 08, 2008
The good ship Hillary meets an iceberg named Obama
I suppose we'll know later this evening whether the ship can be righted, or if it's going to start taking on water and sliding under the waves.
At the national level, Clinton is in a dead heat with Obama, while on the GOP side, Huckabee has a five-point lead over Giuliani. The poll was taken immediately following the Iowa caucuses and compares to the same poll taken in mid-December. In the earlier poll, Clinton enjoyed a sizable lead while Huckabee trailed well behind, so it's possible that this is an Iowa bounce for both Obama and Huckabee.
Interestingly in the poll of Democrats, the percentage of respondents who selected "None/no opinion" doubled from 4 to 8 between the two polling periods. I'm not sure what that means, but I suspect a lot of Hillary fans were scared off by her poor showing in Iowa and hadn't yet gotten behind another candidate.
If Obama pulls off another big win tonight, and it looks like he will, he'll be carrying some big-time momentum into South Carolina and Super-duper Ultra-hot Mega-fantastic Tuesday, or whatever the hell they're calling it now.
My prediction: Obama wins convincingly tonight, and walks to the nomination. Huckabee wins, probably less convincingly, and continues to subvert the GOP agenda through the national convention.
The good ship Hillary picture is from Cry Havoc.
Update: McCain wins and Hillary's in the lead. My political predictions suck.