The rout of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in Somalia appears all but complete. The Islamists have abandoned Mogadishu and the most recent indicators are that Somali government troops are entering the city.
I suspect what will happen next is that the remnants of the UIC will fade into the countryside while the government re-establishes its authority in Mogadishu. This will be followed by a protracted guerrilla war against the government, with suicide bombings, car bombs and the like. If the government can turn the clan militias to their favor, they may be more effective at dealing with an insurgency than the government.
We'll see.
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