'Unlikely' last stand appears likely

The Islamists' last stand at Kismayo which I thought not likely to take place appears to be, well, taking place. As an added bonus, we just might get some guys involved in the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania:

Fighting erupted Sunday on the outskirts of a militant Islamic movement's last remaining stronghold, where Somalia's prime minister said three al-Qaida suspects wanted in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies were hiding.

[ ... ]

[Somalia Prime Minister Ali Mohamed] Gedi said Islamic militants in Kismayo, Somalia's third-largest city, were sheltering alleged bombers Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan and Abu Taha al-Sudani. The bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania killed more than 250 people.

[ ... ]

"If we capture them alive we will hand them over to the United States," Gedi said. "We know they are in Kismayo."

That's some crow I don't mind eatin'.

Thailand's Islamists moving north?

Six bombs were detonated in and around Bangkok on New Year's Eve. Reports are conflicting, but it appears at least two are dead, and as many as 20 injured.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks, but the Thai government had issued warnings of terrorist attacks for the New Year holiday in the violence-prone Muslim south.

The fact that the bombs were set off almost simultaneously, however, has all the hallmarks of an al Qaeda (or al Qaeda-inspired) operation.

Links:
AFP
Reuters
ITN

Pakistani jihadis get do-over

Pakistani courts have released as many as 80 hard-core jihadis from prison:

Anti-terrorism officers in Pakistan say they are deeply alarmed by the security situation. "We are back to square one and the situation is more precarious than it was before 9/11," one senior officer told The Sunday Telegraph. "They are planning more attacks. They have got huge backup. There are so many youths who are joining them. The old ones who are released from the prison are guiding and training the new cadres."

Isn't that just dandy? And these are not just lone, frothing-at-the-mouth militants:

Counter-terrorism officials are aghast at the decision by the courts to free so many people suspected of involvement in attacks. Police say many have since disappeared off the radar of intelligence agencies and are believed to be planning to strike.

Among those released recently are Sohail Akhtar (aka Mustafa), the operational commander of the outlawed Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami group. He has been blamed for a campaign that included a suicide attack in Karachi in which 11 French engineers died, the suicide attack on the US consulate, and the failed attempt on the president's life. Intelligence officers say Mustafa — who was initially sentenced to death before a court overturned the verdict — is also believed to have travelled to Iraq to establish contact between al-Qaeda and terrorists there. His interrogators described him as "a terrorist genius".

One official said: "He was the one who cobbled together all the jihadis, working under various organisations, by coining the slogan, 'The ways should be different but the goal should be one'."

But fear not...Pakistani government officials are on the case:

The government has called a meeting in Islamabad this week to discuss the release of militants. It may put forward a strategy to deter the courts from clearing suspects or releasing them on bail.

Horse gone; barn door closing.

Last stand? Not likely.

Ethiopian and Somali government troops are closing on the town of Kismayo in southern Somalia in the hopes of destroying the Islamist forces there once and for all.

My own guess is that the Ethiopians and government troops will arrive there and find nobody home:

"You think that Islamic courts have failed and the Ethiopian invaders have won in Somalia? I tell you within days everything will be changed," Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal, the Islamist commander, said. "I assure you that the Islamic forces are everywhere in the country and you will see the forces operating within days. What we will do is hit and run. We will ambush their convoys everywhere in Somalia."

Many fear that his comments herald a switch in direction by the Islamists, from controlling Somali territory with the objective of running the country under fundamentalist Sharia law, to an insurgency campaign against the interim government and Ethiopian and Western interests.

Tough times ahead for Somalia. Then again, that's nothing new.

Professional courtesy

* THUD * * THUD * * THUD *

That sound you hear is my head repeatedly striking my computer. I blogged here and here earlier about Iranian diplomatic and military officials being arrested and detained by US forces in Iraq. The two who were clearly diplomats were released earlier for diplomatic immunity, but two senior military officials continued to be held. That's no longer the case.

The Iraqi government has released the two military officials after Iran's claim of diplomatic immunity for them, as well. Never mind that these agents provocateur were caught red-handed:

U.S. defense officials familiar with the raids said the captured Iranians had detailed weapons lists, documents pertaining to shipments of weapons into Iraq, organizational charts, telephone records and maps, among other sensitive intelligence information. Officials were particularly concerned by the fact that the Iranians had information about importing modern, specially shaped explosive charges into Iraq, weapons that have been used in roadside bombs to target U.S. military armored vehicles.

Shaped charges focus the energy of a blast, allowing shrapnel to burst through vehicles, sometimes even if they are heavily armored. U.S. military officials have long said they believed Iran was responsible for sending such weapons -- along with others, such as advanced sniper rifles -- into Iraq to help insurgents and militia groups.

"The evidence shows that they were exactly up to the things our suspicions indicated," said one U.S. defense official.

It's generally accepted that if a cop stops a car for speeding and finds that the driver is an off-duty cop, he'll extend a professional courtesy and let him off. Apparently that's just what the shi'ite-led government of Iraq is doing for the shi'ite-led government of Iran.

It's almost enough to make me side with the bring-the-troops-home-now crowd. Just not for the same reasons.

Hat tip: Hot Air

Osama's 20 year plan

There's an interesting item at the World Tribune (a media outlet whose reliability I'm still trying to determine) that describes a series of Pentagon briefings entitled "The Long War".

The Pentagon’s Joint Staff is very secretive but it is coming out of the shadows to better promote the idea that the global war on terrorism will be a "Long War" of perhaps 100 years’ duration.

This doesn't come as earth-shaking news to those of us who've been following the fight against Islamist extremism, but the end of the article discusses a startling (if a bit ambitious) al Qaeda long-range plan:

The briefing discloses a 20-year Al Qaida plan to create an Islamist extremist homeland in the Middle East. The seven-stage plan began with the September 11 attacks as "The Awakening,” “Eye-Opening,” in 2003 when U.S. troops took Baghdad. The plan will continue with the “Arising and Standing Up” in 2007 with a new focus on Syria and Turkey, and also more direct confrontations with Israel to try to gain more credibility among Muslims.

By 2010, Al Qaida plans on the “Demise of Arab governments.” All this will culminate in an Islamic caliphate in 2013, when Al Qaida and Islamists gain powerful new allies such as China, and Europe declines into disunity.

The “Total Confrontation” period will commence from 2015 to 2020 with the creation of an Islamic Army that will begin a worldwide fight against believers and nonbelievers.

The "Definitive Victory" will be reached in 2020 when the Islamists will assume power globally.

There's little doubt in my mind that this is exactly what groups like al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, Hizb ut Tahrir and others would like. But I think even they would admit it's ambitious. We'll be keeping our eyes on Turkey and Syria in the coming year just the same.

A side note here about World Tribune...they appear to be a half-credible source. For instance, they were out in front on the 'WMD buried in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley' story, which while never disproved, also never had much evidence to back it up. On the other hand, a quick glance at their headlines shows many stories known to be factually confirmed. While this particular story of AQ's 20 year plan sounds perfectly credible, I'll still take it with a grain of salt. A large grain of Mediterranean sea salt.

Too good a graphic not to steal

From foxnews.com.

Saddam dead

Fox News now reporting that al-Arabiya reports that Saddam has been hanged.

Update: 29 Dec 2006 @ 22:14
Confirmed according to CNN and Fox News

Owed to Saddam

This may sound odd, but in a very real sense I owe much to Saddam Hussein. Allow me to explain.

In August of 1990, I was living in Connecticut, working in an IT job for a large insurance company. The job was OK, and the company wasn't a bad place to work. At the same time, I was also a Master Sergeant (E-7) in the Connecticut Air National Guard's 103rd Fighter Group.

On the weekend of 4 August, I was to deploy with about 20 other members of my squadron to Germany for our two weeks annual active duty tour. We had a good squadron commander who believed in working hard and playing harder, so we were all looking forward to the trip. A C-5 transport from nearby Westover AFB was to provide our airlift.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait on 1-2 August, I had a pretty bad feeling we wouldn't be going anywhere. At least not Germany. Sure enough, I got a call from the boss saying to not bother packing, but to be on station on the 4th (a Saturday) anyway. We all show up on Saturday morning and were given the news that there's not a single airframe to be found on the east coast and we'll be doing our active duty at home station. As a good friend of mine would say, "maximum suckaciousness".

The next week was spent glued to the news and taking inventory of our "go to war shit" as one guy called it. I remember crawling over mountains of chem gear suits in the main hangar as we counted out how many of each size we had on hand. One thing about the ANG as opposed to the active forces: senior NCOs don't exempt themselves from crappy work details.

In the second week, a message came in from the National Guard Bureau asking for volunteers to work Contingency Support Center (CSC) at Andrews AFB in Maryland. Anyone who could put in a minimum of 30 days there was welcome. Since my own unit hadn't received any kind of warning order for activation, me and a couple other guys decided what the hell...let's go. I didn't realize it then, but I wouldn't be spending much time in Connecticut after that. Ever.

So for the next month, I found myself working at the Air National Guard Readiness Center (sort of a headquarters agency for ANG units) at Andrews helping to get the CSC stood up for 24/7 operations. When my 30 days was up and things were humming along in a more or less calm routine, I was asked if I wanted to extend "indefinitely". I politely declined and half-jokingly told them to call me "when the shooting starts".

Needless to say, I found myself back at Andrews in February, 1991. I don't recall now exactly why it took two weeks after the shooting started for me to get there, but that's what happened. Since my unit wasn't one of those activated (only two ANG fighter groups were, as I recall), I felt little guilt in taking a cushy state-side individual activation.

I ended up spending 139 days there and was released in July. During my time there, I had a chance to work with a lot of people in different directorates, and got kind of a feel for how things worked. Prior to my release, a Major in the comm-computer systems directorate said he had a job for me if I ever wanted it. The thought of going back full-time to active duty hadn't occurred to me, but I told him I'd consider it.

I got home and right back into my civilian job in July. Less than a month later, I received a call from the good Major, who said he'd received authorization to bring on an E-7 full-time. There'd be a competitive selection process for the position, and he expected a lot of interest "from the field". It was broadly hinted, though, that the job was mine if I wanted it.

During the war, my company paid me the difference between my active duty base pay and my salary. On top of that, there were benefits under the Soldier and Sailor's Relief Act that made things pretty easy for me. I wouldn't have that relief for this, so I had to do some math to see if I could afford it. As it turned out, with all the allowances and housing and such, it would be a wash. On 1 December, 1991, I was back on active duty and back at Andrews.

The decision turned out to be the best I could have made. I never did move back to Connecticut. Not that there's anything wrong with Connecticut (besides being a blue state), but for an IT guy, the Washington, DC area is great. I stayed on active duty until August, 1995, then went back to being a part-timer in the guard. I stayed in the area, and built a house in Virginia.

Through IT industry contacts I made while on active duty, I was able to move through a series of well-paying jobs, and along with one of my 'cubicle mates' from Andrews, ended up at the company I'm with now, doing very well. While at Andrews, I also developed many non-technical, or soft, skills that I'd never have picked up plugging away at the insurance companies in Hartford. Public speaking, for instance--sometimes addressing a crowd of hundreds--is just not something you do very much of while writing code for an insurance company.

And if Saddam hadn't invaded Kuwait in August of 1990, I'd still be working in the insurance industry.

So to Saddam Hussein, I say "Thanks, you blood-soaked, murderous pig!"

Saddam mocks death

On what may be the eve (or even the day of) Saddam's hanging, Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star editorial cartoonist Clay Jones takes one last shot at Saddam in his tighty-whiteys.

Chavez eliminating enemies

Must-not-see TV

In a move that would make Hitler or Stalin proud, Venezuela's commie thug-in-chief Hugo Chavez has announced that he won't authorize the license renewal of a television station critical of his Marxist regime. Chavez says the license to broadcast expires in March 2007.

Just one problem with that...the head of Radio Caracas TV, Marcel Granier, says his license doesn't expire any time in the near future:

Radio Caracas Television, which is aligned with the opposition, supported a strike against Mr Chavez in 2003.

But the TV's head said there must be some mistake as its licence was not up for renewal in the near future.

Marcel Granier also vowed to fight against the president's plans in Venezuela's courts and on the international stage.

Comrade Hugo accuses the station of being "coupist", a word my spell checker tells me doesn't exist.

Big talk from Norway's Islamists

Devout Somali Muslims...in an Oslo bar

Many of the young men of Norway's immigrant Somali community say they'll return to Somalia to fight alongside the Islamists if Ethiopia continues to occupy the country. Not that they could be bothered when the Islamists in Somalia were getting their asses kicked, but hey...who am I to complain?

"If the Ethiopians continue to occupy Somalia, we won't sit here. We will go back to Somalia and fight as one!" says Zakharia Ahmed, banging his fist on the table.

The scene is the Café Bolsho in Oslo's downtown immigrant district Grønland. Dozens of compatriots are gathered round in the noisy café, and Ahmed clearly has full support. "Yes, we will go back and fight," the others shout.

Sure they will. Somali immigrants in Norway have three hots and a cot, often on the taxpayer's dime. They ain't going anywhere.

Saddam to hang before the New Year?

Fox News reports that Saddam may swing before the New Year...perhaps within the next 24 hours.

I may need to get more champagne.